Iowa II?

Conventional wisdom tells us that the flinty independence of New Hampshire voters means that Iowa is a poor guide to the following week's outcome. Of course, conventional wisdom also tells us Iowa's important because of the winner's bounce going into New Hampshire.

More and more, it seems that conventional wisdom doesn't have much to tell us at all. The numbers out of NH, though, are starting to move in a somewhat Iowan direction, with Kerry finishing strong, Edwards moving up for a possible suprise and last weeks frontrunner slipping.

But who gets the Gephardt role?

The new ARG numbers:

Kerry 34 (+3)
Clark 19 (-1)
Dean 15 (-3)
Edwards 13 (+2)
Lieberman 6 (-1)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undecided 12 (even)

Is it likely to change? Well, here's ARG's report on the relative strength of support each candidate enjoys.

"As of the tracking ending January 23, Clark's strong support is 63% of his ballot preference, Dean's strong support is 47% of his ballot preference, Edward's strong support is 77% of his ballot preference, and Kerry's strong support is 74% of his ballot preference. As a result, a total of 29 percentage points overall could switch before Tuesday, not including the 12% undecided."