Setting the New Hampshire baseline

Most of the numbers out are pre-Iowa bounce, but there was enough news coming out of the midwest to have a pretty clear impact on the New Hampshire a week out. Here are a few looks at where we are.

As reported earlier, the last pre-Iowa ARG survey had Kerry pulling a (statistically meaningless) point ahead of Clark.

Dean 28
Kerry 20
Clark 19
Edwards 8
Lieberman 7

The 7News/Suffolk University poll has the race for first even tighter.

Dean 23
Kerry 20
Clark 15

Edwards and Lieberman are described as "far behind the leaders..."


WMUR-TVhas a full list of rankings, but the numbers are, again, pre-Iowa results.

Dean 33
Kerry 24
Clark 18
Edwards 8
Lieberman 5
Kucinich 3
Gephardt 3 (which probably belong in the undecided column now)
Undecided 6

Those undecideds seem very low, but they point out that as many as 48% of those with a stated preference admit that they are still open to a possible change. Iowa results may have a dramatic effect on this one.


Finally, the Zogby three day roll for January 18-20, showing the first influences of the Iowa surprise.

Dean 25
Kerry 23
Clark 16
Edwards 7
Lieberman 7
Kucinich 2
Sharpton 0.1
Undecided 16

Zogby points out that "In the one night of polling (Tuesday) after the Iowa caucus, Kerry actually led Dean by 2 points."

This is about to get real fun, folks.